Draft:Opinion polling for the 2028 Turkish parliamentary election: Difference between revisions
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|MetroPOLL<ref>{{Cite web |title= |
|MetroPOLL<ref>{{Cite web |title=Metropoll'ün Aralık 2023 araştımasına göre partilerin oy destekleri ve 14 Mayıs resmi sonuçları. |url=https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1740301676722954718 |website=twitter.com |date=28 December 2023 |access-date=25 March 2024 |language=tr-tr}}</ref> |
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|Areda Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=İSTANBUL DEĞIŞIYOR, CHP DEĞIŞEMIYOR: TÜRK HALKININ YÜZDE 62, |
|Areda Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=İSTANBUL DEĞIŞIYOR, CHP DEĞIŞEMIYOR: TÜRK HALKININ YÜZDE 62,3'Ü ÖZGÜR ÖZEL'IN PARTIYI DEĞIŞTIREMEYECEĞINI DÜŞÜNÜYOR |url=https://www.areda.com/istanbul-degisiyor-chp-degisemiyor-turk-halkinin-yuzde-623u-ozgur-ozelin-partiyi-degistiremeyecegini-dusunuyor/ |website=areda.com |date=19 December 2023 |access-date=25 March 2024 |language=tr-tr}}</ref> |
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|MetroPOLL<ref>{{Cite web |title= |
|MetroPOLL<ref>{{Cite web |title=Metropoll'ün Aralık 2023 araştımasına göre partilerin oy destekleri ve 14 Mayıs resmi sonuçları. |url=https://twitter.com/ozersencar1/status/1740301676722954718 |website=twitter.com |date=28 December 2023 |access-date=25 March 2024 |language=tr-tr}}</ref> |
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Revision as of 02:19, 27 March 2024
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- Comment: External links need removing from the article body per WP:EL, and yes, that includes the tables... link to the party's article (if exist) instead - RichT|C|E-Mail 01:13, 22 November 2023 (UTC)
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In the run up to the 2028 Turkish parliamentary election, various organizations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Turkey. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 14 May 2023, to the present day.
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
Graphical summary
The chart below shows opinion polls conducted for the next Turkish general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS).
Party vote
2024
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | SP | DEVA | GP | MHP | İYİ | DEM | YRP | ZP | TİP | BBP | MP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mar | HBS[1] | 6,100 | 34.5 | 26.1 | – | – | – | 9.9 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | – | – | – | 3.0 | 8.4 |
20–21 Feb | MetroPOLL[2] | 1,770 | 33.2 | 25.2 | – | – | – | 8.4 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | – | 1.8 | 1.3 | 8.0 |
Feb | HBS[3] | 6,100 | 36.8 | 24.2 | – | – | – | 11.0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | – | – | – | 3.4 | 12.6 |
21–29 Jan | ASAL[4] | 2,000 | 34.8 | 23.2 | – | – | – | 9.7 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | – | 0.8 | 3.0 | 11.6 |
Jan | HBS[5] | 6,100 | 38.0 | 23.7 | – | – | – | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 4.1 | – | – | – | 3.3 | 14.3 |
12–15 Jan | MetroPOLL[6] | 1,565 | 34.6 | 25.1 | – | – | – | 9.0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | – | 0.6 | 3.9 | 9.5 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 53,962,770 | 35.56[a] | 25.34[b] | 10.05 | 9.68 | 8.90[c] | 2.80 | 2.25 | 1.77[d] | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.76 | 10.22 |
2023
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | SP | DEVA | GP | MHP | İYİ | DEM | YRP | ZP | TİP | BBP | MP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28–29 Dec | Yöneylem / PolitPro[8] | 2,400 | 33.3 | 25.2 | – | – | – | 10.6 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | – | – | 5.1 | 8.1 |
18–24 Dec | HBS[9] | 6,100 | 38.4 | 22.5 | – | – | – | 9.1 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | – | – | – | 4.7 | 15.9 |
11–16 Dec | ORC[10] | 3,160 | 36.9 | 27.0 | – | – | – | 11.5 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | – | 2.3 | 9.9 |
9–13 Dec | MetroPOLL[11] | 2,870 | 38.3 | 28.1 | 0.8 | – | – | 7.0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | – | 0.6 | 0.8 | 10.2 |
1–2 Dec | Yöneylem / PolitPro[12] | 2,402 | 32.8 | 26.0 | – | – | – | 10.6 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | – | – | 4.3 | 6.8 |
30 Nov–2 Dec | AREA[13] | 3,012 | 34.2 | 26.1 | – | 1.2 | – | 10.2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 | – | – | 1.2 | 8.1 |
28 Nov–1 Dec | Areda Survey[14] | 2,384 | 39.1 | 26.0 | – | – | – | 7.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 11.1 | 13.1 |
28–30 Nov | İvem[15] | 3,035 | 37.0 | 27.9 | 2.1 | – | – | 7.0 | 6.6 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | – | – | 2.7 | 9.1 |
14–17 Nov | Piar / Adana Medya Haber[16] | 2,584 | 32.0 | 27.2 | – | – | – | 15.3 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 4.2 | – | – | 2.7 | 4.8 |
6–8 Nov | Yöneylem / HalkTV[17] | 2,400 | 32.9 | 24.3 | – | – | – | 10.0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 4.0 | – | – | 5.0 | 8.6 |
5–10 Oct | ASAL[18] | 2,600 | 34.5 | 20.2 | – | – | – | 12.1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | – | 1.1 | 5.0 | 14.3 |
Aug | HBS[19] | 6,100 | 36.9 | 23.6 | – | – | – | 10.7 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | – | – | 3.7 | 13.3 |
7–12 Aug | ORC[20] | 6,100 | 32.4 | 27.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | – | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
Jul | HBS[21] | 5,900 | 36.5 | 23.2 | – | – | – | 10.5 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | – | – | 3.9 | 13.3 |
14–25 Jul | ASAL[22] | 2,520 | 33.5 | 23.7 | – | – | – | 10.2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 9.8 |
6 Jul 2023 | Felicity Party and Future Party established Felicity and Future Alliance.[23] | ||||||||||||||||
Jun | HBS[24] | 6,100 | 38.1 | 24.5 | – | – | – | 10.0 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | – | – | 2.6 | 13.6 |
8–10 Jun | MetroPOLL[25] | 2,113 | 38.8 | 25.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | – | 0.5 | 0.4[e] | 13.3 |
28 May 2023 | Nation Alliance dissolved.[26] | ||||||||||||||||
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 53,962,770 | 35.56[a] | 25.34[b] | 10.05 | 9.68 | 8.90[c] | 2.80 | 2.25 | 1.77[d] | 0.97 | 0.93 | 1.76 | 10.22 |
Regional
Adana
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | MHP | İYİ | DEM | TİP | ZP | YRP | BBP | MP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8–13 Sep 2023 | ALF[27] | 3,360 | 28.7 | 32.4 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 9.7 | – | 3.3 | 2.3 | – | – | 2.9 | 3.7 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 1,425,851 | 30.86[a] | 28.63[b] | 11.03 | 10.75 | 9.73[c] | 2.30[d] | 2.10 | 1.79 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 1.13 | 2.23 |
Ankara
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | İYİ | MHP | ZP | DEM | YRP | BBP | TİP | MP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8–9 Feb 2024 | AREA[28] | 1,546 | 32.7 | 32.2 | 4.0 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 6.5 | – | 0.7 | – | 2.5 | 0.5 |
22–23 Jan 2024 | AREA[29] | 2,006 | 34.8 | 34.0 | 4.1 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | – | 2.3 | – | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Nov 2023 | HBS[30] | 2,000 | 37.9 | 34.7 | 7.2 | 7.7 | – | 4.0 | – | – | – | – | 8.5 | 3.2 |
1–8 Nov 2023 | ASAL[31] | 2,000 | 39.5 | 34.4 | 6.8 | 8.5 | – | 4.0 | – | – | – | – | 6.8 | 5.1 |
10–19 Oct 2023 | ALF[32] | 2,500 | 33.4 | 32.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | – | – | 3.0 | 0.5 |
14–18 Jul 2023 | ASAL[33] | 2,074 | 33.7 | 32.3 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | – | 1.0 | – | 6.5 | 1.5 |
8–13 Jul 2023 | HBS[34] | 3,900 | 42.4 | 40.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | – | 4.2 | – | – | – | – | 3.2 | 2.3 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 3,974,000 | 32.52[a] | 30.55[b] | 12.80 | 10.25 | 3.33 | 3.15[c] | 2.67 | 1.26 | 1.25[d] | 0.98 | 1.25 | 1.97 |
Antalya
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | CHP | AKP | İYİ | MHP | DEM | TİP | ZP | MP | YRP | BBP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 2023 | ASAL[35] | 1,764 | 37.3 | 34.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 2.1 | – | – | – | 1.2 | – | 5.6 | 3.3 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 1,718,557 | 32.31[b] | 29.07[a] | 11.31 | 10.03 | 4.90[c] | 4.55[d] | 2.80 | 1.32 | 1.26 | 0.66 | 1.79 | 3.24 |
Eskişehir
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | CHP | AKP | İYİ | MHP | ZP | DEM | TİP | YRP | MP | BBP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 Oct 2023 | ALF[36] | 1,800 | 35.7 | 33.6 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 3.8 | – | 1.4 | – | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 635,478 | 34.05[b] | 33.15[a] | 13.81 | 7.31 | 2.96 | 2.23[c] | 1.66[d] | 1.42 | 1.27 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 0.90 |
Gümüşhane
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | MHP | İYİ | CHP | YRP | ZP | BBP | DEM | MP | TİP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dec 2023 | HBS[37] | 1,500 | 49.6 | 27.4 | 7.1 | 12.0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3.9 | 22.2 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 80,886 | 47.41[a] | 26.24 | 18.17[f] | 2.66 | 1.10 | 0.82 | 0.62[c] | 0.53 | 0.35[d] | 2.09 | 21.17 |
Hatay
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | MHP | TİP | İYİ | DEM | YRP | ZP | BBP | MP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 2023 | ASAL[38] | 1,874 | 36.5 | 34.1 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | 2.9 | 2.4 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 894,538 | 33.91[a] | 28.38[b] | 12.20 | 8.56[d] | 8.02 | 3.25[c] | 1.83 | 1.32 | 0.89 | 0.51 | 1.13 | 5.53 |
Istanbul
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | MHP | CHP | DEM | İYİ | TİP | YRP | ZP | MP | BBP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21–22 Feb 2024 | MetroPOLL[39] | 1,664 | 33.1 | 6.5 | 31.0 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | – | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Feb 2024 | HBS[40] | 2,925 | 42.2 | 40.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | – | 2.1 | 2.2 | – | – | 1.8 | 1.5 | |
9–13 Dec 2023 | MetroPOLL[41] | 1,500 | 35.9 | 4.9 | 29.7 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 3.2 | – | 4.0[g] | 6.2 |
Sep 2023 | HBS[42] | 2,900 | 40.7 | 5.4 | 38.0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 5.8 | 2.7 |
2–9 Jul 2023 | ASAL[43] | 2,506 | 40.6 | 4.5 | 38.7 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | – | – | 2.8 | 1.9 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 10,423,250 | 36.07[a] | 6.24 | 28.33[b] | 8.19[c] | 8.07 | 4.04[d] | 3.25 | 2.78 | 1.00 | 0.81 | 1.23 | 7.74 |
İzmir
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | CHP | AKP | İYİ | DEM | MHP | TİP | ZP | MP | YRP | BBP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15–20 Oct 2023 | ALF[44] | 2,000 | 43.5 | 30.0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | – | 1.4 | – | – | – | 3.0 | 13.5 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 3,144,052 | 40.89[b] | 25.26[a] | 11.39 | 7.54[c] | 5.36 | 2.81[d] | 2.33 | 1.18 | 0.89 | 0.46 | 1.90 | 15.63 |
Konya
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | MHP | CHP | İYİ | YRP | ZP | DEM | BBP | MP | TİP | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 2023 | ASAL[45] | 1,246 | 55.9 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.9 | – | 4.2 | – | – | – | 4.4 | 43.4 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 1,464,705 | 47.95[a] | 14.31 | 13.68[b] | 8.66 | 5.07 | 2.93 | 2.80[c] | 2.00 | 0.89 | 0.41[d] | 1.30 | 33.64 |
Samsun
Fieldwork date | Polling firm / Published by | Sample size | AKP | CHP | MHP | İYİ | YRP | ZP | BBP | MP | TİP | DEM | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mar 2024 | HBS[46] | 1,100 | 50.2 | 25.3 | – | 17.1 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.7 | 24.9 |
2023 parliamentary election[7] | 922,027 | 42.46[a] | 19.76[b] | 14.24 | 12.06 | 3.97 | 2.15 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 0.71[d] | 0.60[c] | 1.61 | 22.70 |
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes HÜDA PAR and DSP running on AKP list.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Includes SP, DEVA, GP, DP and TDP running on CHP list.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes HDP, EHP and TÖP running on YSGP list.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Includes Greens' Party, UİD-DER and İDP running on TİP list.
- ^ Free Cause Party – 0.2
- ^ Includes CHP, SP, DEVA, GP, DP and TDP running on İYİ list.
- ^ Felicity Party – 1.3
References
- ^ "Türkiye gündem araştırması. Yüz yüze görüşme". twitter.com (in Turkish). 11 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "According to Metropoll's February 2024 research, vote support of parties across Turkey". twitter.com (in Turkish). 6 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "ŞUBAT AYI TÜRKİYE GÜNDEM ARAŞTIRMASI". twitter.com (in Turkish). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Bu Pazar bir milletvekili seçimi olsa hangi siyasi partiye oy verirsiniz?". twitter.com (in Turkish). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Aralık ayı Türkiye Gündem Araştırması". twitter.com (in Turkish). 1 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "In January 2024, after the voting support of the parties was distributed proportionally to the undecided, it was like a repeat of May 14, 2023". twitter.com (in Turkish). 12 February 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Sandık Sonuçları ve Tutanaklar". sonuc.ysk.gov.tr (in Turkish). Retrieved 2023-11-22.
- ^ "Turkey: Poll by Yöneylem from 29.12.2023". politpro.eu (in Turkish). Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "18-24 Aralık Türkiye Gündem Araştırması". twitter.com (in Turkish). 29 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Bu Pazar "Milletvekili Genel Seçimi" olsa, hangi partiye oy verirsiniz?". twitter.com (in Turkish). 18 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Metropoll'ün Aralık 2023 araştımasına göre partilerin oy destekleri ve 14 Mayıs resmi sonuçları". twitter.com (in Turkish). 28 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Turkey: Poll by Yöneylem from 02.12.2023". politpro.eu (in Turkish). Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "#AreaAraştırma Türkiye Siyasi Durum Araştırması/ Kasım 2023 raporumuzdan". twitter.com (in Turkish). 4 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "İSTANBUL DEĞIŞIYOR, CHP DEĞIŞEMIYOR: TÜRK HALKININ YÜZDE 62,3'Ü ÖZGÜR ÖZEL'IN PARTIYI DEĞIŞTIREMEYECEĞINI DÜŞÜNÜYOR". areda.com (in Turkish). 19 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Ivem Araştırma Aralık 2023 Türkiye Siyasi Gündem Araştırma raporu". twitter.com (in Turkish). 7 December 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "28 Mayıs seçimlerini bilen tek firma açıkladı... MHP oylarında büyük artış!". adanamedyahaber.com (in Turkish). 20 November 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "Yöneylem Araştırma Direktörü Derya Kömürcü: Kurultayın heyecan yarattığı açık". youtube.com (in Turkish). 18 November 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "Asal Araştırma'dan genel seçim anketi: İşte partilerin oy oranları". gercekgundem.com (in Turkish). 16 October 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "Ağustos Ayı Türkiye Gümdem Araştırması". twitter.com (in Turkish). 6 September 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "MART 2024 YEREL SEÇİMLERİ "SEÇMEN EĞİLİMLERİ"". twitter.com (in Turkish). 15 August 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "Temmuz ayı gündem araştırması". twitter.com (in Turkish). 1 August 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ ""Bu Pazar Milletvekili Seçimi Olsa"". twitter.com (in Turkish). 10 August 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
- ^ "Saadet ve Gelecek partileri Meclis'te grup kuracak, yerel seçimde işbirliği yapacak: DEVA Partisi neden çekildi?". bbc.com (in Turkish). 6 July 2023. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Haziran ayı Türkiye geneli anket sonucu(6.100) seçmen". twitter.com (in Turkish). 2 July 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2024.
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