Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles

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VinBus electric bus charging at VF station. The power comes from solar cells on top of the roof

Vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels, such as gasoline (petrol), diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil are set to be phased out by a number of countries. It is one of the three most important parts of the general fossil fuel phase-out process, the others being the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation and decarbonisation of industry.[1]

Many countries and cities around the world have stated they will ban the sale of passenger vehicles (primarily cars and buses) powered by fossil fuels such as petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, and diesel at some time in the future.[2][3] Synonyms for the bans include phrases like "banning gas cars",[4] "banning petrol cars",[5] "the petrol and diesel car ban",[6] or simply "the diesel ban".[7] Another method of phase-out is the use of zero-emission zones in cities.

A few places have set dates for banning other types of vehicles, such as fossil-fuelled ships and lorries.

Background[edit]

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Further information: Environmental impact of the petroleum industry and Environmental aspects of the electric car

Reasons for banning the further sale of fossil fuel vehicles include: reducing health risks from pollution particulates, notably diesel PM10s, and other emissions, notably nitrogen oxides;[8] meeting national greenhouse gas, such as CO2, targets under international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement; or energy independence. The intent to ban vehicles powered by fossil fuels is attractive to governments as it offers a simpler compliance target,[9] compared with a carbon tax or phase-out of fossil fuels.[10]

A BMW i3 being charged in Amsterdam. Electric cars had a world market share of around 5% in 2021.[11][12]

The automotive industry is working to introduce electric vehicles to adapt to bans[3] with varying success and it is seen by some in the industry as a possible source of money in a declining market. A 2020 study from the Eindhoven University of Technology showed that the manufacturing emissions of batteries of new electric cars are much smaller than what was assumed in the 2017 IVL study[note 1] (around 75 kg CO2/kWh) and that the lifespan of lithium batteries is also much longer than previously thought (at least 12 years with a mileage of 15,000 km annually): they are cleaner than internal combustion cars powered by diesel or petrol.[13]

There is some opposition to simply moving from fossil-fuel-powered cars to electric cars, as they would still require a large proportion of urban land.[14] On the other hand, there are many types of (electric) vehicles that take up little space, such as (cargo) bicycles and electric motorcycles and scooters.[15] Making cycling and walking over short distances, especially in urban areas, more attractive and feasible with measures such as removing roads and parking spaces and improving cycling infrastructure and footpaths (including pavements), provides a partial alternative to replacing all fossil-fuelled vehicles with electric vehicles.[15][16] Although there are as yet very few completely carfree cities (such as Venice), several are banning all cars in parts of the city, such as city centers.[17][18]

Methods[edit]

The banning of fossil-fuelled vehicles of a defined scope requires authorities to enact legislation that restricts them in a certain way. Proposed methods include:

  • A prohibition on further sales or registration of new vehicles powered with specific fuels from a certain date in a certain area.[19] At the date of implementation, existing vehicles would remain legal to drive on public highways.[20]
  • A prohibition on the importation of new vehicles powered with specific fuels from a certain date into a certain area. This is planned in countries such as Denmark, Israel, and Switzerland;[21][22][23] however, some countries, such as Israel, have no legislation on the subject.[24]
  • A prohibition on any use of certain vehicles powered with specific fuels from a certain date within a certain area. Restrictions such as these are already in place in many European cities, usually in the context of their low-emission zones (LEZs).[25]
  • Making emission legislation so strict that it can in reality not be fulfilled.

Fuel cell (electric) vehicles (FCVs or FCEVs) also allow running on (some) non-fossil fuels (i.e., hydrogen, ethanol,[26] methanol,[27] ).

Cities generally use the introduction of low-emission zones (LEZs) or zero-emission zones (ZEZs), sometimes with an accompanying air quality certificate sticker such as Crit'air (France), to restrict the use of fossil-fuelled cars in some or all of its territory.[19] These zones are growing in number, size, and strictness.[19][28] Some city bans in countries such as Italy, Germany, and Switzerland are only temporarily activated during particular times of the day, during winter, or when there is a smog alert (for example, in Italy in January 2020); these do not directly contribute to the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles, but they make owning and using such vehicles less attractive as their utility is restricted and the cost of driving them increases.[29][30][31]

Some countries have given consumers various incentives such as subsidies or tax breaks to stimulate the purchase of electric vehicles, while fossil-fuelled vehicles are taxed increasingly heavily.[19]

Helped by government incentives, Norway became the first country to have the majority of new vehicles sold in 2021 be electric. In January 2022, 88 per cent of new vehicles sold in the country were electric, and based upon current trends, they would most likely hit the goal of no new fossil fuel cars being sold by 2025.[32]

Places with planned fossil-fuel vehicle restrictions[edit]

This is a dynamic list and may never be able to satisfy particular standards for completeness. You can help by adding missing items with reliable sources.

International[edit]

At the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Glasgow multiple governments and companies signed a non-legally-binding declaration to accelerate the transition to 100% zero emission cars and vans (the Glasgow Declaration). They wanted all new cars and vans to not emit any greenhouse gas at the tailpipe by 2035 in leading markets and by 2040 globally.[33][34][35] The United States and China (the biggest car markets) did not sign and neither did Germany (the biggest car market in the EU). Also absent from the list of signatories were major car manufacturers Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault-Nissan and Hyundai-Kia.[36]

European Union[edit]

In 2018, Denmark proposed an EU-wide prohibition on petrol and diesel cars, but that turned out to be contrary to EU regulations. In October 2019, Denmark made a proposal for phasing out fossil fuel vehicles on the member state level by 2030 which was supported by 10 other EU member states.[21] In July 2021, France opposed a ban on combustion-powered cars and in particular on hybrid vehicles.[37] In July 2021, the European Commission proposed a 100% reduction of emissions for new sales of cars and vans as of 2035.[38][39] On 8 June 2022, the European Parliament voted in favour of the proposal of the European Commission, but agreement with the European Union member states was necessary before a final law could be passed.[40] On 22 June 2022, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated that his government would refuse to agree on the ban.[41] But on 29 June 2022, after 16 hours of negotiations, all climate ministers of the 27 EU member states agreed to the commission's proposal (part of the 'Fit for 55' package) to effectively ban the sale of new internal combustion vehicles by 2035 (through '[introducing] a 100% CO2 emissions reduction target by 2035 for new cars and vans').[42][43][44] Germany backed the 2035 target, asking the Commission whether hybrid vehicles or CO2-neutral fuels could also comply with the proposal; Frans Timmermans responded that the Commission kept an "open mind", but at the time 'hybrids did not deliver sufficient emissions cuts and alternative fuels were prohibitively expensive.'[43] The law for "zero CO2 emissions for new cars and vans in 2035" was approved by the European Parliament on 14 February 2023.[45]

Countries[edit]

Countries with proposed bans or implementing 100% sales of zero-emissions vehicles include China (including Hong Kong and Macau), Japan, Singapore, the UK, South Korea, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Slovenia, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Canada, the 12 U.S. states that adhered to California's Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, Sri Lanka, Cabo Verde, and Costa Rica.[2]

Map of proposed bans:
  2020s
  2030s
  2040s
  2050s
Country Start year Status Scope Details
Armenia 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Austria 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Azerbaijan 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Belgium 2026[46]

2029[47]

Climate plan 2026: No further tax deductibility of Diesel, petrol employee company cars

2029: (Flanders region) Diesel, petrol

2026: Only for new cars which are provided as compensation to employees

2029: (Flanders region) New car and van sales

Cambodia 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34][35][failed verification] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Canada 2035[note 2] climate plan[48][49] Diesel, petrol, non-electric New light-duty vehicle sales.
Cape Verde 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Chile 2035 Chilean government Green New Deal.[50] Diesel, petrol New vehicle sales
People's Republic of China 2035 Government climate plan.[51] Diesel, petrol New private vehicle sales and registration.
Costa Rica 2050[52][53] Proposed by Costa Rica President Carlos Alvarado as a "roadway" in 2019. Diesel, petrol New light vehicle sales
Croatia 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Cyprus 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Denmark 2030–2035[54] Diesel, petrol New vehicle sales (2030), new hybrid vehicle sales will continue to be allowed until 2035.[54]
Dominican Republic 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Egypt 2040[55] Government plan Diesel, petrol, non-electric New car sales
El Salvador 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Ethiopia 2024 Ethiopia’s Transport and Logistics Ministries announcement[56] Non-electric New imported vehicles by 2024[56]
Finland 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Germany 2030 Bundesrat decision[57] Emitting New car sales[57]
Ghana 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Greece 2030 Government plan[58] Emitting, non-electric New vehicle sales
Holy See 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Hong Kong (PRC) 2035[59] Hong Kong Legislature plan, Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic Of China. Diesel, petrol New private vehicle sales and registration.
Iceland 2030 climate plan[60] Cars than run exclusively on Diesel, petrol New car sales, but with exceptions for regional considerations (areas where it would be difficult to ban petrol or diesel cars)[60]
India 2040[61] Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[61][33][34] Petrol, diesel[61] New vehicle sales[61]
Indonesia 2050[62] Proposed by the Government as a "roadway" in 2021 Diesel, petrol All motorcycle sales (2040), all car sales (2050)
Ireland 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Israel 2030[citation needed] Emitting, non-electric New car sales, newly imported vehicles
Italy 2035 Ministry of ecologic transition directive[63] Emitting New private vehicle sales by 2035
New commercial vehicle sales by 2040
Japan 2035 Japanese government plan cease sales of new Diesel-, petrol-only cars Diesel and petrol hybrid cars to continue to be sold indefinitely[64]
Kenya 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Republic of Korea 2035[55] Government climate plan Petrol, diesel New vehicle sales.
Liechtenstein 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Lithuania 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Luxembourg 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Macau (PRC) 2035[citation needed] Macau Legislature plan, Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic Of China. Diesel, petrol New private vehicle sales and registration.
Malaysia 2050[citation needed] Malaysia Net-Zero Emission by 2050 Emitting New vehicle sales by 2050 at latest
Malta 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Mexico 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Morocco 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Netherlands 2030[65] coalition agreement[66] Diesel, petrol New passenger car sales. Commercial vehicles to continue to use petrol and diesel until 2040.
New Zealand 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Norway 2025 tax and usage incentives[67] Diesel, petrol All new passenger cars. Commercial vehicles to continue to use petrol and diesel until 2035.
Pakistan 2040 National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) Emitting 90 percent of the New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Paraguay 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Poland 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Portugal 2035 Government climate plan proposed by the ruling Socialist Party of Portugal.[68][69] Diesel, petrol New car sales
Rwanda 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Singapore 2023 (Public Sector Vehicles)[70]

2025 (Diesel-only Cars and Taxis, non-electric airside light vehicles)[71][72]

2030 (Petrol-only and Diesel-only Vehicles)[73]

February 2021 Climate plan, brought forward ten years earlier since 2020 announcement. Petrol, Diesel, non-electrified All new cars procured and registered by the public sector will be clean energy vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions from 2023 onwards with all non-zero tailpipe emission public sector vehicles to be phased out by 2035.[70] All new airside light vehicles to be of fully electric models from 2025 onwards.[72]

Sales and Registration of all new Diesel-only Cars and Taxis to cease by 2025, Sales and Registration of all new Diesel-only Commercial Vehicles and Petrol-only Vehicles to cease by 2030.

All new vehicles to run on cleaner energy (electric, hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell) from 2030, phase-out of internal combustion engines (from the entire population of motor vehicles) completed by 2040.[71][73][74][75]

Slovenia 2031 emission limit of 50 g/km[76][77] Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Allow Diesel and petrol if emissions < 50 gr/km New car registration
Spain 2040[3] Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] ICE New passenger car sales only. Commercial vehicles[78] and motorcycles[79] to continue to use petrol or diesel.
Sweden 2030 coalition agreement[80] Diesel, petrol New car sales
Taiwan 2040[81] Government Climate plan announced by the Environmental Protection Administration. Diesel, petrol All bus and government-owned car use (2030), all motorcycle sales (2035), all car sales (2040)[81]
Thailand 2035[82][83] Only proposals of National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee, not yet effective in any way.[83] Diesel, petrol New car sales[82][83] and new car registration.[83]
Turkey 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] and declaration on lorries and buses[84] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Ukraine 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
United Kingdom 2035,[85] 2040[86] Government plan Diesel, petrol New non-electric car sales and new hybrid car sales from 2035, new CO2 emitting lorry and bus sales from 2040
United States 2035[87][88] Imposed by US President Joe Biden as Executive Order 14057 that mandates all new light duty vehicles added to the government fleet are 100% zero emissions by 2027.[87][88] Diesel, petrol, non-electric Government acquisition of light-duty vehicles (2027) and government acquisition of all vehicle types (2035). Entire fleet of government-owned vehicles with ICE engines will be phased-out and will be replaced with 100% all-electric vehicles by 2035-2040.[87][88]
Uruguay 2040 Signatory of the Glasgow Declaration[33][34][35][failed verification] Emitting New vehicle sales by 2040 at latest
Vietnam 2040-2050[89][90] Program of Ministry of Transport of Vietnam; Vietnam Government Decision No. 876/QD-TTg, dated 22 July 2022[89][90] Emitting All vehicles on road must use electricity or net-zero fuel from 2050[89][90]

Some politicians in some countries have made broad announcements[91][22] but have implemented no legislation[24] and therefore there is no phase-out and no binding legislation.[92] Ireland, for example, had made announcements but ultimately did not ban diesel nor petrol vehicles.[93][94]

The International Energy Agency predicted in 2021 that 70% of India's new car sales will be fossil powered in 2030,[95] despite earlier government announcements that were discarded in 2018.[96] In November 2021, the Indian government was amongst 30 national governments and six major automakers who pledged to phase out the sale of all new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 worldwide, and by 2035 in "leading markets".[61]

Cities and territories[edit]

Further information: Low-emission zone and European emission standards
See also: Air pollution § Governing urban air pollution
European emission standards
(older) 1992 1996 2000 2005 2009 2014
Euro 0 Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

Some cities or territories have planned or taken measures to partially or entirely phase out fossil fuel vehicles earlier than their national governments. In some cases, this is achieved through local or regional government initiatives, in other cases through legal challenges brought on by citizens or civil organisations enforcing partial phase-outs based on the right to clean air.[97]

Some cities listed have signed the Fossil Fuel Free Streets Declaration, committing to banning emitting vehicles by 2030,[98] but this does not necessarily have the force of law in those jurisdictions. The bans typically apply to a select number of streets in the urban centre of the city where most people live, not to its entire territory. Some cities take a gradual approach to prohibit the most polluting categories of vehicles first, then the next-most polluting, all the way up to a complete ban on all fossil-fuel vehicles; some cities have not yet set a deadline for a complete ban, and/or are waiting for the national government to set such a date.[99][100][101]

In California, emissions requirements for automakers to be permitted to sell any vehicles in the state were expected to force 15% of new vehicles offered for sale between 2018 and 2025 to be zero emission. Much cleaner emissions and increased efficiency in petrol engines mean this will be met with just 8% of ZEV vehicles.[102] The "Ditching Dirt Diesel" law SB 44 sponsored by Nancy Skinner and adopted on 20 September 2019 requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to "create a comprehensive strategy for deploying medium- and heavy-duty vehicles" to make California meet federal ambient air quality standards, and 'establish goals and spur technology advancements for reducing GHG emissions from the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors by 2030 and 2050'. It stops short of directly requiring a phase-out of all diesel vehicles by 2050 (as the original bill did), but it would be the most obvious means of achieving the reduction goals.[103][104] In August 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed off on a new EV mandate. The plan's targets are 35% ZEV market share by 2026, 68% by 2030, and 100% by 2035.[105] This plan is accompanied by supporting funding for infrastructure and ZEV rebates totaling $10 billion. Newsom has stated his commitment to keep California at the forefront of zero-emission transportation.

In the European Union, Council Directive 96/62/EC on ambient air quality assessment and management and Directive 2008/50/EC on ambient air quality form the legal basis for EU citizens' right to clean air.[106] On 25 July 2008 in the case Dieter Janecek v Freistaat Bayern CURIA, the European Court of Justice ruled that under Directive 96/62/EC[107] citizens have the right to require national authorities to implement a short-term action plan that aims to maintain or achieve compliance to air quality limit values.[108] The ruling of the German Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig on 5 September 2013 significantly strengthened the right of environmental associations and consumer protection organisations to sue local authorities to enforce compliance with air quality limits throughout an entire city.[106] The Administrative Court of Wiesbaden declared on 30 June 2015 that financial or economic aspects were not a valid excuse to refrain from taking measures to ensure that the limit values were observed, the Administrative Court of Düsseldorf ruled on 13 September 2016 that driving bans on certain diesel vehicles were legally possible to comply with the limit values as quickly as possible, and on 26 July 2017, the Administrative Court of Stuttgart ordered the state of Baden-Württemberg to consider a year-round ban on diesel-powered vehicles.[106] By mid-February 2018, citizens in the EU member states the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, and the United Kingdom were suing their governments for violating the limit of 40 micrograms per cubic meter of breathable air as stipulated in the Ambient Air Quality Directive.[97]

A landmark ruling by the German Federal Administrative Court in Leipzig on 27 February 2018 declared that the cities of Stuttgart and Düsseldorf were allowed to legally prohibit older, more polluting diesel vehicles from driving in zones worst affected by pollution, rejecting appeals made by German states against the bans imposed by the two cities' local courts. The case was strongly influenced by the ongoing Volkswagen emissions scandal (also known as Dieselgate), which in 2015 revealed that many Volkswagen diesel engines were deceptively tested and marketed as much cleaner than they were. The decision was predicted to set a precedent for other places in the country and in Europe.[7] Indeed, the ruling triggered a wave of dozens of local diesel restrictions, brought about by Environmental Action Germany (DUH) suing city authorities and winning legal challenges across Germany.[109] While some groups and parties such as the AfD again tried to overturn them, others such as the Greens advocated for a national phaseout of diesel cars by 2030.[110][111] On 13 December 2018, the European Court of Justice overturned a 2016 European Commission relaxation of car NOx emission limits to 168 mg/km, which the Court declared illegal. This allowed the cities of Brussels, Madrid, and Paris, who had filed the complaint, to proceed with their plans to also reject Euro 6 diesel vehicles from their urban centres, based on the original 80 mg/km limit set by EU law.[112][113][note 3]

City or territory Country Ban announced Ban commences Scope Details
Aachen Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel Older diesel vehicles (2019), unless pollution reduces.[111]
Amsterdam Netherlands 2019 2030[116] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel cars (2020), non-electric buses (2022), pleasure crafts and (light) mopeds (2025), all vehicles (2030).[117]
Antwerp Belgium 2016 2017–2025[118] Diesel, lpg, petrol Euro I–II diesels and 0 petrol/lpg (2017), Euro III diesels and 1 petrol/lpg (2020), Euro IV diesels and 2 petrol/lpg (2026),[118][119] all diesels (2031), all petrol (2035)[120]
Arnhem Netherlands 2013, 2018 2014–2019[121] Diesel Euro I–III diesel trucks (2014), all Euro I–III diesel vehicles (2019)*.[121][note 4]
Athens Greece 2016 2025[122] Diesel All vehicles
Auckland New Zealand 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Australian Capital Territory Australia 2022 2035[123] Fossil fuels All new light fossil fuel vehicles from 2035 encompassing passenger cars, motorcycles and small trucks. This policy forms part of the ACT Government's Zero Emissions Vehicles Strategy 2022–30.[124] The Strategy also targets 80-90% of new light vehicles sold by 2030 to be zero-emission models.[125]
Balearic Islands Spain 2018 2025–2035[126] Diesel, petrol All vehicles
Barcelona Spain 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Berlin Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel Euro I–V diesel vehicles (2019).[111]
Bonn Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel Older diesel vehicles (2019).[111]
Bristol United Kingdom 2019 2021[127] Diesel All private vehicles (city center from 7 am to 3 pm)
British Columbia Canada 2018 2025[128] Diesel, petrol All vehicles by 2040, 10% ZEVs by 2025
Brussels Region Belgium 2018 2030–2035[129][130] Diesel, petrol Euro 0–I diesels (2018),[131] Euro II diesels and 0–1 petrols (2019), Euro III diesels (2020),[130] Euro IV diesels (2022), Euro V diesels and Euro 2 petrol (2025), all diesels (2030), all petrol vehicles (2035)[132]
California United States 2020 2035 Net-emitting vehicles All passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks.[133][134]
Cape Town South Africa 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Cologne Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel Older diesel vehicles (2019).[111]
Connecticut United States 2022 2035 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales
Copenhagen Denmark 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Darmstadt Germany 2018 2019[135] Diesel Euro I–V diesel vehicles on two streets (2019).[135]
Düsseldorf Germany 2013 2014[136] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2014).[136]
Eindhoven Netherlands 2020 2030[137] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel trucks (2007), Euro I–III diesel buses (2021), Euro IV diesel trucks (2022), all Euro IV diesel vehicles (2025), all vehicles (2030).[137]
Essen Germany 2018[111] 2030 Diesel Older diesel vehicles.[111]
Frankfurt Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel Euro I–V diesel vehicles and Euro 1–2 petrol vehicles (2019).[111][138]
Gelsenkirchen Germany 2018[111] 2025 Diesel Older diesel vehicles.[111]
Ghent Belgium 2016[139] 2020–2028[140] Diesel, lpg, petrol Euro I–III diesel and 1 petrol/lpg (2020)*, Euro IV and Euro 2 petrol/lpg (2026)*[140][119][note 5], all diesels (2031), all petrol (2035)[120]
Hainan China 2018 2030[141] Diesel, petrol All vehicles
Hawaii United States 2022 2035 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales
Hamburg Germany 2018[142] 2018[142] Diesel Euro I–V diesel vehicles in one street, older diesel trucks in another street (2020).[142]
Heidelberg Germany 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Lausanne Switzerland 2021 2030[143] Thermic vehicles Zero mobility-related direct emissions
Lombardy Italy 2018 2019–2020[144] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel and Euro 1 petrol (1 April 2019), Euro IV diesel (1 October 2020).[144]
London United Kingdom 2017 2020–2030[3][145] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025 (two zero emissions zones by 2022)[145]
Los Angeles United States 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Madrid Spain 2016 2025[122] Diesel Euro I–III diesel and Euro 1–2 petrol vehicles (2018),[117] all vehicles (2025).[122]
Maine United States 2022 2030 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales, Rejected by state regulators[146]
Massachusetts United States 2020 2035[147] Diesel, petrol Will set equivalent regulations to match California's Advanced Clean Cars Program
Mainz Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2019).[111][148]
Mexico City Mexico 2016 2025[122] Diesel All vehicles
Milan Italy 2017 2030[3] Diesel All diesel vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Moscow Russia 2012, 2019[149] 2013–2021[149] Non-electric Euro I–IV bus purchases (2013), all non-electric bus purchases (2021), Euro I–III vehicles (20??), all non-electric vehicles (20??).[149]
Munich Germany 2011 2012[150] Diesel, petrol 2e
New Jersey United States 2023 2035 Net-emitting vehicles New vehicle sales[151]
New Mexico United States 2022 2026 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales
New York State United States 2021 2035[152] Non-ZEV vehicles New passenger cars and trucks and off-road vehicles and equipment
New York City United States 2020 2040[153] Non-electric vehicles All vehicles owned or operated by New York City
Nijmegen Netherlands 2018 2021[101] Diesel Euro I–III diesel cars (2021).[101]
North Carolina United States 2022 2035 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales.[154]
Oregon United States 2021 2030 All vehicles Gas cars (2025), gas trucks (2030)
Oslo Norway 2019 2030[19] Emitting City centre fossil-free (2024), entire city fossil-free (2030).[19]
Oxford United Kingdom 2017 2020–2035[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles (initially during daytime hours on six streets)[155][156]
Paris France 2016 2025[122] Diesel All vehicles
Quebec Canada 2020 2035 Diesel, petrol Ban of new gas-powered vehicle sales by 2035.[157]
Quito Ecuador 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Rhode Island United States 2022 2035 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales
Rome Italy 2018 2024[158] Diesel All vehicles, only from historical center
Rotterdam Netherlands 2015[159] 2016[159] Diesel Euro I–III diesel trucks (2016). Other bans were dropped in 2019.[159]
Seattle United States 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Stockholm Sweden 2017 2020–2022 Diesel, petrol Euro I–IV vehicles (2020), Euro V vehicles (2022) on one street[160]
Stuttgart Germany 2018 2019–2020[161][135] Diesel Euro I–IV diesel vehicles (2019),[161] Euro V diesel vehicles (2020).[135]
The Hague Netherlands 2019 2030[100] Diesel, petrol Two-stroke mopeds (2020), Euro I–III diesel vehicles (2021), all vehicles (2030).[100]
Utrecht Netherlands 2013,[162] 2020[99] 2030[99] Diesel, petrol Pre-2001 diesel vehicles from 2015,[162] pre-2004 diesels from 2021,[99] pre-2009 (Euro I–IV) diesels from 2025,[99] all vehicles from 2030.[99]
Vancouver Canada 2017 2030[3] Diesel, petrol All vehicles, electric buses by 2025
Vermont United States 2022 2035 Non-electric vehicles New vehicle sales
Washington United States 2021 2030 Emitting New car sales (2025), new truck sales (2030)
Wallonia Belgium 2018 2025–2030[163][164] Diesel, petrol Euro 0–III (2025), Euro IV (2026), Euro V diesel vehicles (2028), Euro VI diesel vehicles (2030).[163][164]
Wiesbaden Germany 2018 2019[111] Diesel, petrol Euro I–III diesel vehicles and Euro 0 petrol vehicles (2019).[111][148]

Manufacturer fossil-fuel phase-out plans[edit]

See also: List of manufacturers by motor vehicle production
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) indicate a trend away from gas-powered vehicles that generate greenhouse gases.[165]

In 2017, Volvo announced plans to phase out internal combustion-only vehicle production by 2019, after which all new cars manufactured by Volvo will either be fully electric or electric hybrids.[166] In 2020, the Volvo Group with other truck makers including DAF Trucks, Daimler AG, Ford, Iveco, MAN SE, and Scania AB pledged to end diesel truck sales by 2040.[167]

In 2018, Volkswagen Group's strategy chief said "the year 2026 will be the last product start on a combustion engine platform" for its core brand, Volkswagen.[168]

In 2021, General Motors announced plans to go fully electric by 2035.[169] In the same year, the CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, Thierry Bolloré also claimed it would "achieve zero tailpipe emissions by 2036" and that its Jaguar brand would be electric-only by 2025.[170] By March, Volvo Cars announced that by 2030 it "intends to only sell fully electric cars and phase out any car in its global portfolio with an internal combustion engine, including hybrids".[171] In April 2021, Honda announced that it will stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2040.[172] In July 2021, Mercedes-Benz announced that its new vehicle platforms will be EV-only by 2025.[173] In Oct 2021, Rolls-Royce announced that it will be fully electric by 2030.[174] In November 2021, at 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, car manufacturers including BYD Auto, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo have committed to "work towards all sales of new cars and vans being zero emission globally by 2040, and by no later than 2035 in leading markets".[175][176]

In 2022, Maserati announced its plans to offer full-electric variants of all its models by 2025 and its intention to halt production of combustion engine vehicles by 2030.[177]

In 2023, Nissan announced the commitment to end combustion engine vehicle sales in Europe by 2030.[178]

The following table shows manufacturer pledges of the top global automaker corporations.

# Manufacturer Vehicles 2023[179] Country Pledge Details[180]
1. Toyota 10,307,395 Japan No pledge Expects to make 3.5m EVs per year by 2030
2. Volkswagen 9,239,575 Germany 2040 Pledged to make 25% EVs by 2025. Expects to make 50% EVs by 2030 and 100% by 2040
3. Hyundai Kia 7,302,451 South Korea No pledge Plans to be one of top-three EV manufacturers by 2030. Genesis will become 100% all-electric by 2030.
4. Stellantis 6,392,600 Euro-American 2030, Europe only Formerly Fiat-Chrysler. Plan for 100% EV in Europe by 2030, and 50% in the US by 2030[181]
5. General Motors 6,188,476 USA 2035 Cadillac and Buick to become 100% all-electric by 2030. Chevrolet and GMC to become 100% all-electric by 2035.
6. Ford 4,413,545 USA No pledge 50% of Ford vehicle sales will be electric by 2030, and 100% of all Lincoln vehicle sales along with 100% of all Ford Europe sales will be electric by 2030.
7. Honda 4,188,039 Japan 2040 Plan for 40% sales to be EVs by 2030, and 100% by 2040. This rolls back previous suggestion of going all-electric by 2030.[182]
8. Nissan 3,374,271 Japan No pledge Plan for 40% of US Nissan sales and 100% of Infiniti sales to be electric by 2030. Plan for 100% of European sales to be electric by 2030.
9. BMW 2,555,341 Germany No pledge. Mini all electric by 2030. BMW 50% electric by 2030.
10. Changan 2,553,052 China 2025, partly Changan pledges are for all electric vehicles, however, many remain hybrid
11. Mercedes 2,493,177 Germany 2030, with exceptions Despite its 2030 pledge, Mercedes says it may sell fossil fuel vehicles in markets that need it.
12. Renault 2,235,345 France 2030 100% electric by 2030, and aim for 100% clean energy production by 2040.[183]
13. Maruti Suzuki 2,066,219 Japan No pledge Only launching first electric car in 2025.[184]
14. Tesla, Inc. 1,808,581 USA 100% already Tesla is an entirely electric carmaker
15. Geely 1,686,516 China 2030 Pledge for Volvo to be all electric by 2030.[185] Aim for 50% sales in 2023 to be electric.[186]

Electric vehicle market shares by country[edit]

The sale of 5% electric vehicles is commonly regarded as a "tipping point" at which sales are likely to continually increase on a standard "S curve" pattern. At the end of 2023, 31 countries (including most EU countries, China and the US) had reached well over 5% of the market as electric, 15 countries were over 20%, and two were over 50%. However, Japan, India, Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia, which are among the 15 largest car markets, notably had not reached 5%.

# Country EV sales in Q4 2023[187] Market share When 5% reached
1. Norway 25,028 79.6% 2013 Q3
2. Iceland 3,507 58.4 2019 Q1
3. Denmark 21,890 44.9 2020 Q3
4. Sweden 31,780 39.8 2020 Q1
5. Finland 6,686 35.3 2020 Q4
6. Netherlands 29,199 35.1 2018 Q4
7. Ireland 1,164 33.9 2019 Q4
8. Belgium 25,752 25.3 2021 Q3
9. Portugal 11,265 24.3 2020 Q4
10. Switzerland 16,581 23.9 2020 Q1
11. China 1,879,600 23.8 2020 Q4
12. Austria 13,083 23.3 2020 Q3
13. Israel 6,772 22.9 2021 Q3
14. France 98,755 20.3 2020 Q1
15. New Zealand 7,435 20.0 2021 Q3
16. Germany 138,390 19.6 2020 Q3
17. UK 79,602 17.6 2020 Q2
18. Thailand 23,864 12.6 2023 Q1
19. Turkey 36,026 12.0 2023 Q3
20. Romania 3,655 10.8 2021 Q4
21. Slovenia 1,126 10.7 2022 Q4
22. Australia 21,571 9.5 2022 Q3
23. Canada 38,160 9.4 2022 Q1
24. Spain 20,666 8.7 2022 Q4
25. US 313,822 8.1 2021 Q4
26. Estonia 400 7.5 2023 Q2
27. South Korea 36,009 6.9 2021 Q3
28. Hungary 1,614 6.5 2022 Q4
29. Bulgaria 551 5.8 2023 Q4
30. Italy 21,033 5.4 2023 Q4
31. Greece 1,579 5.3 2023 Q2
- Global total 3,008,662 14.5 2021 Q2

Railways[edit]

While railway electrification is often pursued for reasons unrelated to the emissions caused by fossil fuels, there has been an increased push in the 21st century to replace diesel locomotives with alternatives such as battery electric multiple units,[188] hydrogen fuel trains like the Alstom Coradia iLint or overhead wire electrification.[189] To date the only (non-micro- or city-state) country to have electrified its entire mainline railway network, Switzerland, pursued this phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles before the term or concept existed in the modern form, in large part because importing coal for steam locomotives had proven difficult during the World Wars but Switzerland has plenty of domestic hydropower resources to power electric trains.[190][191] Israel Railways which had no electrified mainline rail services prior to 2018 when the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem railway became the first line to see electric train operation, plans to electrify most[note 6] or all of its network[192] and to phase out diesel locomotives and diesel multiple units.[193] The project was further accelerated in 2020 as the temporary shutdown of rail traffic due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Israel allowed faster construction[194] and ERTMS level 2 was being rolled out.[195] However, in 2019 Israel Railways ordered diesel powered rolling stock to replace the ageing IC3 trains with media reports citing delays in the electrification program as the main reason.[196] In California's bay area, the Caltrain Electrification program approved in 2016 is nearing completion.[197] Despite having no electric locomotives previously, Caltrain's infrastructure has successfully implemented electric support. Funding was awarded in 2018, and train assembly and testing completed in 2022. In a multi-stage phase out plan, the new electric train cars will supplement and eventually replace diesel powered locomotives by 2024.[citation needed]

Shipping[edit]

See also: Mobility transition § Measures in freight transport, MARPOL 73/78, Environmental effects of shipping, Regulation of ship pollution in the United States, Cruise ship pollution in the United States, and Cruise ship pollution in Europe

Emissions will be banned from Norway's World Heritage Sites Geirangerfjord and Nærøyfjord from 2026.[198]

Besides boats driven by batteries or indeed trolley boats, there have been several attempts to adapt nuclear marine propulsion which has been a part of the military naval forces of many countries for decades in the form of nuclear submarines, nuclear aircraft carriers and nuclear icebreakers to civilian uses. While prototypes like Otto Hahn (ship) (German) NS Savannah (American) and RV Mirai (Japan) were built, the only non-icebreaker nuclear powered ship to remain in civilian service is the Russian Sevmorput built in the late 1980s by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union and its successor state Russia also maintains a fleet of nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route open.

Sail ships and oars rely on renewable resources rather than fossil fuels (wind and human muscle-power respectively) but have disadvantages in terms of speed and labour-costs and have thus been phased out of virtually all commercial uses. There are some attempts to use wind-powered ships for commercial purposes, but as of 2022 they have remained marginal.[199][200][201]

Aviation[edit]

Further information: Electric aircraft and Aviation taxation and subsidies

Norway, and possibly some other Scandinavian countries, are aiming for all domestic flights to be emission-free by 2040.[202][203] A major obstacle to decarbonising air travel is the low energy density of current and foreseeable battery technology.[204][205] Thus alternatives to electric planes such as so called sustainable aviation fuels[206][207] or e-fuels (fuels derived from electrochemical conversion of substances like water and carbon dioxide into hydrocarbons) are also proposed as a future replacement of current jet fuels.[208][209][210] In 2021 the first production scale plant for e-fuels to be used in aviation opened in northern Germany. Production capacity is planned to reach 8 barrels a day by 2022.[211] Lufthansa will be among the chief users of the synthetic fuel produced in the new facility.[212] Germany's plan to transform aviation to net zero carbon emissions relies heavily on e-fuels.[213]

Besides the need to rapidly scale up currently minuscule production capacity, the main obstacles to wider deployment of sustainable aviation fuels and e-Fuels are their much higher cost in the absence of meaningful carbon pricing in aviation.[214] Furthermore, with current CORSIA regulations for sustainable aviation fuels allowing up to 90% of emissions compared to conventional fuels, even those options are currently far from carbon neutral.[215]

There were attempts at building Nuclear-powered aircraft during the Cold War, which unlike nuclear marine propulsion never got very far and were always only proposed for military uses. As of 2022 no country or private enterprise is seriously pursuing nuclear propulsion for passenger aircraft.[citation needed]

However, short haul, low demand routes can be easily flown using electric aircraft, and manufacturers such as Heart Aerospace are planning to introduce them with United Airlines in 2026.[citation needed]

Unintended side-effects[edit]

Second-hand vehicle dumping[edit]

Main article: Used car
Further information: Effects of the car on societies and Road ecology

From the European Union, there is already an export market which includes millions of used cars which are sent to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, central Asia and Africa.[216][217] According to UNECE, the global on-road vehicle fleet is to double by 2050 (from 1.2 billion to 2.5 billion,[218] see introduction), with most future car purchases taking place in developing countries. Some experts predict that the number of vehicles in developing countries will increase by 4 or 5-fold by 2050 (compared to current car use levels), and that the majority of these will be second-hand.[219][220] There are currently no global or even regional agreements that rationalise and govern the flow of second-hand vehicles.[219] Others say that new electric 2-wheelers may sell widely in developing countries as they are affordable.[221]

Internal combustion engine cars that may no longer comply to local environmental standards are exported to developing countries, where legislation on vehicle emissions is often less strict. In addition, in some developing countries, such as Uganda, the average age of a car imported is already 16.5 years and it will likely be driven for another 20 years. In such cases, fuel efficiency levels of these vehicles become worse as they age.[219][222] In addition, national vehicle inspection requirements vary widely depending on the country.

Potential solutions[edit]

  • Export prohibitions: Some propose that the European Union could implement a rule that does not allow the most polluting cars to leave the EU.[216] The European Union itself is of the opinion that it "should stop exporting its waste outside of the EU" and it will therefore "revisit the rules on waste shipments and illegal exports".[223]
  • Import prohibitions: This includes used vehicle bans, used vehicle import age limits, taxation and inspection tests as a precondition to vehicle registration.[224]
  • Convert fossil fuel vehicles to electric: As of 2021, this is expensive, so it tends to only be done for classic cars.[225]
  • Mandatory recycling: The European Commission is considering plans to introduce rules on mandatory recycled content in specific product groups for packaging, vehicles, construction materials and batteries, for instance.[226] The EU announced a new Circular Economy Action Plan in March 2020,[227] and it mentioned that the Commission will also propose to revise the rules on end-of-life vehicles with a view to promoting more circular business models.[228]
  • Scrappage programs: Governments can offer a premium to owners to have their fossil fuel vehicles voluntarily scrapped and to buy a cleaner vehicle from that money (if they so choose). For example, the city of Ghent offers a scrapping premium of €1,000 for diesel vehicles and €750 for petrol vehicles; as of December 2019, the city had allocated €1.2 million for this purpose to the scrapping fund.[139]

Mobility transition[edit]

Main article: Mobility transition

In Germany, activists have coined the term Verkehrswende (mobility transition, analogous to "Energiewende", energy transition) for a project of not only changing the motive power of cars (from fossil fuels to renewable power sources) but the entire mobility system to one of walkability, complete streets, public transit, electrified railways and bicycle infrastructure.

There is similar research being done in the United States around the term mobility justice.[229] Geologist Dr. Jason Henderson of University of California, San Francisco argues that supporting electric vehicles while neglecting compact city design and public transportation will lead to car-oriented city design.[230] This comes with numerous sustainability issues that disproportionately affect disadvantaged communities such as environmental gentrification, less low-income housing, and unequal access to the benefits of electric vehicle adoption. In addition, the production of electric vehicles can come at the price of laborers in other countries, and the environmental costs there are seldom taken into account when calculating the environmental benefits of electric vehicles.[citation needed] According to mobility justice critiques, relying primarily on electric vehicles for the phase out of fossil fuels comes at an opportunity cost of investing in other types of sustainable transportation such as bike lanes, safe walking spaces, electric trains, and electric buses.[citation needed]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Romare, M. & Dahllöf, L. The Life Cycle Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Lithium-Ion Batteries. 58 (2017). "IVL" stands for Institutet för Vatten- och Luftvårdsforskning (Institute of Water and Air Navigation Research).
  2. ^ brought forward 5 years since 2017 announcement
  3. ^ The 80 mg/km limit is defined in Regulation (EC) No 692/2008, Table 2 of Annex XVII and Footnote 1 of Annex XI.[113][114] The European Court of Justice ruled that the European Commission illegally circumvented this limit by introducing a 'temporary conformity factor of 2,1 (...) to allow manufacturers to gradually adapt to the RDE [Real Driving Emissions] rules' in Regulation (EU) 2016/646, Preamble 10 and Annex II '2.1.2 Temporary conformity factors'. This meant 2.1 times 80 mg/km = 168 mg/km.[113][115]
  4. ^ *Access for banned diesel vehicles is only possible by buying a one-day exemption for 36 euros, which the owner is allowed to do up to 12 times (a year?). Old diesel cars for transporting disabled people are exempt.[121]
  5. ^ *From 2020 on, vehicles are gradually prohibited from most to least polluting; banned vehicles can only get temporary access by buying Low Emission Zone (LEZ) day ticket, which the owner is allowed to do up to 8 times a year.[140]
  6. ^ There is still no clear decision whether the old Jaffa-Jerusalem railway is to be electrified, shut down, kept as a heritage railway or converted to hydrogen fuel or battery-electric operation

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