Next Pakistani general election

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Next Pakistani general election

← 2018 By 12 October 2023

All 336 seats in the National Assembly
169 seats needed for a majority
  Imran Khan 2019 crop.jpg CM Punjab Shehbaz Sharif (35771008313) (cropped).jpg Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.png
Leader Imran Khan Shehbaz Sharif Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Party PTI PML(N) PPP
Leader since 25 April 1996 6 March 2018 30 December 2007
Last election 31.82%, 149 seats 24.35%, 82 seats 13.03%, 54 seats
Seats needed Increase 20 Increase 87 Increase 115

Incumbent Prime Minister

Shehbaz Sharif
PML(N)



General elections are scheduled to be held in Pakistan less than 60 days after the dissolution of the National Assembly, which is set to dissolve on 13 August 2023, unless dissolved earlier: in which case the election shall be held within 90 days after dissolution. This means that the election must be held by or before 12 October 2023.[1]

Background[edit]

2018 elections[edit]

General elections were held in Pakistan on Wednesday 25 July 2018 after the completion of a five-year term by the outgoing government. At the national level, elections were held in 272 constituencies, each electing one member to the National Assembly. At the provincial level, elections were held in each of the four provinces to elect Members of the Provincial Assemblies (MPA).

As a result of the elections, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) became the single largest party at the national level both in terms of both popular vote and seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) remained the largest party in Sindh and the newly-formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) became the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, a hung parliament prevailed with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) emerging as the largest party in terms of directly elected seats by a narrow margin. However, following the joining of many independent MPAs into the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form the government.

Opinion polling prior to campaigning had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML-N's lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the final result, the PTI made a net gain with 31.82% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML-N made a net loss with 24.35%. In the lead-up to the elections, there had been allegations by some pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML-N.[2][3] The opposition to the winning parliamentary party alleged large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[4][5][6] However, Reuters polling suggested PML-N's lead had narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[7] Some [8] had termed the ruling PML-N "embattled... facing a number of desertion and corruption charges". Imran Khan proceeded to form the coalition government, announcing his cabinet soon after.[9] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[10]

Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections were conducted fair and free.[11][12][13] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[14] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[15][16]

Electoral system[edit]

The 336 seats of the National Assembly consist of 266 elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies,[17] 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minority groups. The reserved seats are elected by proportional representation based on the national vote share in the single-member constituencies with a 5% electoral threshold.[18]

The Government have passed a bill requiring the next general election to be held using EVMs (electronic voting machines). This is aimed at bringing an end to the allegations of rigging that have followed previous elections in Pakistan.[19]

Parties[edit]

The table below lists each party that either received a share of the vote higher than 0.5% in the 2018 Pakistan general election or had representation in the 15th National Assembly of Pakistan. Political parties are ordered by their vote share in the 2018 elections. Independent Candidates bagged 11.46% of the vote and 13 national assembly seats (both general seats and total seats in the 15th National Assembly, as reserved seats for women and minorities, are given to political parties) in 2018.

Name Claimed
ideology(ies)
Leader Voteshare
in 2018
General seats won in 2018 Total seats in the
15th National Assembly
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف
Populism
Islamic democracy
Welfarism
Anti-corruption
Civic nationalism
Imran Khan 31.82%
116 / 272
149 / 342
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)
Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism
Shehbaz Sharif 24.35%
64 / 272
82 / 342
PPP Pakistan Peoples Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی
Social democracy
Secularism
Nationalization
Democratic socialism
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari 13.03%
43 / 272
54 / 342
MMA Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
متحدہ مجلس عمل
Islamism
Conservatism
Fazl-ur-Rahman 4.85%
12 / 272
15 / 342
TLP Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan
تحریک لبیک پاکستان
Islamism Saad Hussain Rizvi 4.21%
0 / 272
0 / 342
GDA Grand Democratic Alliance
گرینڈ ڈیموکریٹک الائنس
Regionalism Pir Pagaro 2.37%
2 / 272
3 / 342
ANP Awami National Party
عوامی نيشنل پارٹی
Pashtun nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism
Asfandyar Wali Khan 1.54%
1 / 272
1 / 342
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement – Pakistan
متحدہ قومی موومنٹ(پاکستان)
Liberalism
Social liberalism
Social democracy
Muhajir nationalism
Secularism
Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui 1.38%
6 / 272
7 / 342
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ(قائد اعظم)
Conservatism
Pakistani nationalism
Shujaat Hussain 0.97%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BAP Balochistan Awami Party
بلوچستان عوامی پارٹی
Federalism
Islamic democracy
Jam Kamal Khan 0.60%
4 / 272
5 / 342
BNP(M) Balochistan National Party (Mengal)
بلوچستان نيشنل پارٹی(مینگل)
Baloch nationalism
Democratic socialism
Secularism
Akhtar Mengal 0.45%
3 / 272
4 / 342
AML Awami Muslim League Pakistan
عوامی مسلم لیگ پاکستان
Islamism
Populism
Shaikh Rasheed Ahmad 0.22%
1 / 272
1 / 342
JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party
جمہوری وطن پارٹی
Baloch nationalism Nawabzada Shahzain Bugti 0.04%
1 / 272
1 / 342

Opinion polls[edit]

In the run up to the 2023 Pakistani general elections, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.

National Assembly Voting intention[edit]

The results in the tables below (excluding the column on undecided voters and non-voters) exclude survey participants who said they wouldn't vote or they didn't know who they would vote for and add up to 100%. In polls that include undecided voters or non-voters, percentages are adjusted upwards in order to make the total equal 100%. Margins of error are also adjusted upwards at the same rate to account for the increase.

Nationwide[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PML(N) PPP MMA[a] TLP Other Ind. Lead Margin
of error
Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
PA 17 July 2022 PTI wins Punjab provincial by-election
IPOR (IRI) 3 June 2022 PDF 39% 33% 12% 7% 4% 5% 6% ±2 - 3% 2,003 25%
NA 11 April 2022 Shehbaz Sharif is elected Prime Minister
10 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 35% 33% 19% 6% 4% 3% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,509 16%
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 34% 33% 15% 6% 3% 9% 1% ±3 - 5% 5,688 33%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 31% 33% 17% 3% 3% 11% 1% 2% ±2 - 3% 3,769 11%
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 36% 38% 13% 4% 3% 6% 2% ±3.22% 2,003 32%
IPOR (IRI) 13 August 2020 PDF 33% 38% 15% 3% 3% 8% 5% ±2.95% 2,024 26%
IPOR (IRI) 30 June 2020 PDF 24% 27% 11% 3% 2% 33% 3% ±2.38% 1,702 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 24 June 2019 PDF 31% 28% 15% 5% 21% 3% ±3 - 5% ~1,400 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 22 November 2018 PDF 43% 27% 15% 1% 1% 11% 1% 16% ±2.05% 3,991 22%
NA 17 August 2018 Imran Khan is elected Prime Minister
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 31.8% 24.3% 13.0% 4.8% 4.2% 10.3% 11.5% 7.5% N/A 53,123,733 N/A


Punjab[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI PML(N) TLP PPP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
2022 By-Elections 17 July 2022 [20] 46.8% 39.5% 5.54% 0% 7.85% 7.3% 2,240,465 1.59
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 34% 42% 2% 6% 16% 8% ~1,900 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 35% 43% 3% 7% 9% 3% 8% ~3,100 31%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 31% 46% 3% 5% 15% 15% 2,035 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 26% 39% 2% 5% 27% 1% 13% 1,089 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 33.6% 31.7% 5.7% 5.4% 4.8% 18.8% 1.9% 33,218,101 N/A

Sindh[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PPP PTI MQM(P) MMA Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 44% 17% 5% 34% 27% ~810 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 34% 30% 3% 3% 28% 2% 4% ~1,300 39%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 13% 7% 36% 31% 867 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 22% 13% 1% 3% 61% 9% 467 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 38.4% 14.5% 7.7% 6.1% 25.9% 7.4% 23.6% 10,025,437 N/A

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa[edit]

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PTI MMA ANP PML(N) PPP Other Ind. Lead Sample
size
Undecideds &
Non-voters[b]
NA 11-12 April 2022 Imran Khan is removed from office in a no-confidence motion
IPOR (IRI) 21 March 2022 PDF 38% 23% 8% 13% 8% 10% 15% ~600 N/A[c]
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 44% 13% 6% 21% 8% 7% 1% 23% ~970 28%
IPOR (IRI) 9 January 2022 PDF 44% 17% 11% 11% 7% 10% 27% 641 N/A[c]
IPOR (IRI) 11 November 2020 PDF 34% 8% 3% 12% 4% 26% 21% 331 N/A[c]
2018 Elections 25 July 2018 ECP 32.3% 17.1% 12.3% 9.9% 9.1% 5.2% 14.1% 15.2% 6,611,287 N/A

Government approval rating (PTI)[edit]

The results in this table show polls that surveyed whether people approved or disapproved of either the overall (not on a single issue) performance of the PTI federal government in Islamabad or Imran Khan's overall performance as prime minister from 18 August 2018 to 11 April 2022.

The same rounding restrictions that were given in the previous section do not apply here, so occasionally, results will add up to 101% or 99% due to rounding errors, and neutral respondents (when data is available for them) are counted in this table, unlike the last table.

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Approve Neutral Disapprove DK/NA Strongly
approve
Approve Neutral Disapprove Strongly
disapprove
DK/NA Net Margin of error Sample
size
Gallup Pakistan 4 April 2022 PDF 46% N/A 54% N/A N/A -8% ±3 - 5% ~800
Gallup Pakistan 31 January 2022 PDF 36% 14% 48% 3% 15% 21% 14% 18% 30% 3% -12% ±3 - 5% 5,688
Gallup Pakistan 4 September 2021 PDF 48% N/A 45% 7% N/A +3% ±3 - 5% ~1,200
Gallup Pakistan 19 August 2020 PDF 38% 30% 31% 2% 22% 16% 30% 13% 18% 2% +7% ±3 - 5% 1,662
IPOR (IRI) 13 August 2020 PDF 38% N/A 54% 7% 16% 22% N/A 17% 37% 7% -16% ±2.18% 2,024
Gallup Pakistan 15 February 2020 PDF 32% N/A 66% 1% 8% 24% N/A 19% 47% 1% -34% ±3 - 5% 1,208
Gallup Pakistan 30 September 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 15% 32% N/A 16% 37% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% 1,237
Gallup Pakistan 24 June 2019 PDF 45% N/A 53% 2% 21% 24% N/A 32% 21% 2% -8% ±3 - 5% ~1,400
Gallup Pakistan 29 December 2018 PDF 51% N/A 46% 3% 13% 38% N/A 26% 20% 3% +5% ±2 - 3% ~1,141
IPOR (IRI) 1 December 2018 PDF 47% N/A 27% 26% 17% 30% N/A 18% 9% 26% +20% ±2.17% 2,041
Pulse Consultant 28 November 2018 HTML 51% N/A 30% 19% N/A +21% ±2.07% 2,019
IPOR (IRI) 22 November 2018 PDF 56% N/A 40% 5% 16% 40% N/A 28% 12% 5% +16% ±2.05% 3,991

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Certain polls only include data for the JUI(F) instead of the MMA, and in those cases data for the JUI(F) is used because the JUI(F) is the largest constituent party of the MMA and makes up most of its base.
  2. ^ a b c d This is a column that lists the percentage of undecided voters and non-voters in certain polls that publish this data. As some polls do not publish any data whatsoever on undecided voters and non-voters, the columns with survey participants that had a preference when polled are all that is needed to reach 100%. In surveys that do include data on non-voters and undecided voters, a scaling factor is applied to the margin of error and the rest of the data (for example, if the number of undecideds and non-voters equals 20%, each party would have their vote share scaled up by a factor of 100/80 (the formula is 100/(100-UndecidedPercentage)). This is done to keep consistency between the different polls and the different types data they provide.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k This poll or crosstabulation did not include any data about undecided voters or non-voters and cut them out completely from the published results.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "The Constitution of Pakistan, Part VIII: Elections".
  2. ^ "The assault on Pakistan media ahead of vote". Bbc.com. 4 July 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2018.
  3. ^ Fair, C. Christine (27 July 2018). "Pakistan's Sham Election". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 6 August 2018.
  4. ^ "Ex-cricketer Khan leads Pakistan elections in early counting". BBC News. 26 July 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2018.
  5. ^ Gannon, Kathy (26 July 2018). "Unofficial Results in Pakistan's Election Show Lead For Imran Khan, But Opponents Allege Fraud". TIME Magazine. Archived from the original on July 29, 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  6. ^ Shah, Saeed (25 July 2018). "Ex-Cricket Star Imran Khan Headed for Pakistan Election Victory". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  7. ^ "Blow after blow dims re-election hopes of Pakistan's ruling party". 11 May 2018 – via uk.reuters.com.
  8. ^ "Pakistan's ex-PM Nawaz Sharif slammed for Mumbai attack comments". aljazeera.com.
  9. ^ "Imran Khan Close to Forming Pakistan Coalition, Cabinet Decided". Bloomberg.com. 2018-07-30. Retrieved 2020-10-05.
  10. ^ "Imran Khan starts to build governing coalition in Pakistan". Financial Times.
  11. ^ "Pakistan election: Party of Ex-PM Nawaz Sharif concedes to Imran Khan".
  12. ^ "ECP rejects political parties' claim of 'rigging' on election day".
  13. ^ "'PML-N rejects poll results,' declares Shahbaz Sharif". Dawn. 25 July 2018. Retrieved 26 July 2018.
  14. ^ "FAFEN satisfied with transparency of polls, urges ECP to allay opposition's concerns". July 27, 2018.
  15. ^ Barker, Memphis (27 July 2018). "EU piles pressure on Imran Khan after Pakistan election". theguardian.com. Retrieved 28 July 2018.
  16. ^ "EU monitors team says Pakistan election not a level playing field". Geo TV news. 28 July 2018.
  17. ^ Electoral system IPU
  18. ^ Pakistan IFES
  19. ^ "PM vows to defeat the 'corrupt'". The Express Tribune. 2021-04-25. Retrieved 2021-04-27.
  20. ^ "2022 Punjab provincial by-election Result Dashboard- dunyanews.tv". Dunya News. Retrieved 2022-07-28.