The Abilene paradox is a collective fallacy, in which a group of people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of most or all individuals in the group, while each individual believes it to be aligned with the preferences of most of the others. It involves a breakdown of group communication in which each member mistakenly believes that their own preferences are counter to the group's, and therefore does not raise objections, or even states support for an outcome they do not want.
A common phrase relating to the Abilene paradox is a desire to not "rock the boat". This differs from groupthink in that the Abilene paradox is characterized by an inability to perceive the views of others, or to manage agreement.
The term was introduced by management expert Jerry B. Harvey in his 1974 article "The Abilene Paradox: The Management of Agreement". The name of the phenomenon comes from an anecdote that Harvey uses in the article to elucidate the paradox:
On a hot afternoon visiting in Coleman, Texas, the family is comfortably playing dominoes on a porch, until the father-in-law suggests that they take a [50-mile (80-km)] trip to Abilene for dinner. The wife says, "Sounds like a great idea." The husband, despite having reservations because the drive is long and hot, thinks that his preferences must be out-of-step with the group and says, "Sounds good to me. I just hope your mother wants to go." The mother-in-law then says, "Of course I want to go. I haven't been to Abilene in a long time."
The drive is hot, dusty, and long. When they arrive at the cafeteria, the food is as bad as the drive. They arrive back home four hours later, exhausted.
One of them dishonestly says, "It was a great trip, wasn't it?" The mother-in-law says that, actually, she would rather have stayed home, but went along since the other three were so enthusiastic. The husband says, "I wasn't delighted to be doing what we were doing. I only went to satisfy the rest of you." The wife says, "I just went along to keep you happy. I would have had to be crazy to want to go out in the heat like that." The father-in-law then says that he only suggested it because he thought the others might be bored.
The group sits back, perplexed that they together decided to take a trip that none of them wanted. They each would have preferred to sit comfortably but did not admit to it when they still had time to enjoy the afternoon.
This is in contrast to groupthink, where individuals correctly perceive the preferences of others, are not acting contrary to their conscious wishes in choosing to conform with others, and generally feel good about the resulting group decisions. The Abilene paradox is used to illustrate that groups may have problems in managing not only disagreements, but also agreements.
The phenomenon is explained by social psychology theories of social conformity and social influence, which suggest human beings are often very averse to acting contrary to the trend of a group. According to Harvey, the phenomenon may occur when individuals experience "action-anxiety"—stress concerning the group potentially expressing negative attitudes towards them if they do not go along. This action anxiety arises from what Harvey termed "negative fantasies"—unpleasant visualizations of what the group might say or do if individuals are honest about their opinions—when there is a "real risk" of displeasure and negative consequences for not going along. The individual may experience "separation anxiety", fearing exclusion from the group.
Applications of the theory
The theory is often used to help explain extremely poor group decisions, especially notions of the superiority of "rule by committee". For example, Harvey cited the Watergate scandal as a potential instance of the Abilene paradox in action. The Watergate scandal occurred in the United States in the 1970s when many high officials of the Nixon administration colluded in the cover-up and perhaps the execution of a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C. Harvey quotes several people indicted for the coverup as indicating that they had personal qualms about the decision but feared to voice them. In one instance, campaign aide Herbert Porter said that he "was not one to stand up in a meeting and say that this should be stopped", a decision that he attributed to "the fear of the group pressure that would ensue, of not being a team player".
- Argumentum ad populum
- Asch conformity experiments
- Elephant in the room
- False consensus effect
- Group polarization
- Keynesian beauty contest
- Peer pressure
- Pluralistic ignorance
- Prediction market
- Preference falsification
- Prisoner's dilemma
- Special interests
- Spiral of silence
- The Wisdom of Crowds
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- McAvoy, J.; Butler, T. (2006). "Resisting the change to user stories: a trip to Abilene". International Journal of Information Systems and Change Management. 1 (1): 48–61. doi:10.1504/IJISCM.2006.008286.
- Harvey, J. B. (1974). "The Abilene paradox: the management of agreement". Organizational Dynamics. 3: 63–80. doi:10.1016/0090-2616(74)90005-9.
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- Pownall, Ian. Effective Management Decision Making. Bookboon. p. 223. ISBN 978-87-403-0120-5.
- Harvey, Jerry (Summer 1988). "The Abilene Paradox: The Management of Agreement". Organizational Management. American Management Association. 17 (1): 19–20. doi:10.1016/0090-2616(88)90028-9.
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1988). The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books. ISBN 0-669-19179-5
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1996). The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management (paperback). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. ISBN 0-7879-0277-2
- Harvey, Jerry B. (1999). How Come Every Time I Get Stabbed in the Back, My Fingerprints Are on the Knife?. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. ISBN 0-7879-4787-3