2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election

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2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election
Flag of Gilgit-Baltistan.png
← 2015 November 15, 2020 (2020-11-15)[a] 2025 →

24 of the 33 seats in the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly[b]
17 seats needed for a majority
Registered745,362[2]
Turnout> 60%
  First party Second party Third party
  Flag of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.svg Flag of Pakistan People's Party.svg Flag of Muslim League.svg
Leader Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan Amjad Hussain Azar Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman
Party PTI PPP PML(N)
Leader's seat Astore-I (won) Gilgit-I (won) and Nagar-I (won) Gilgit-II (lost)
Last election 1 seat, 11.11% 1 seat, 18.26% 21 seats, 34.17%
Seats before 1 1 21
Seats won 22 5 3
Seat change Increase 21 Increase 4 Decrease 18
Popular vote - - -
Percentage - - -
Swing - - -

Gilgit Baltistan Assembly Election 2020 Map.png
Map of Gilgit Baltistan showing Assembly Constituencies and winning parties

Chief Minister before election

Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman
PML(N)

Elected Chief Minister

Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan
PTI

The 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly elections were held on 15 November 2020.[3][4][5][6] Elections will be held in 24 constituencies, each electing one member to the 3rd Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly.[7][8] 330 candidates will contest these elections,[9] either representing one of the political parties of Gilgit-Baltistan[9] (at the time of the 2020 elections) or being an independent candidate.

The elections were originally scheduled to be held on 18 August 2020,[10][11] but were postponed in July[12][13] due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely affected Gilgit-Baltistan.

The Pakistan Army was not be called in to preside over the polls at the Election, with Mir Afzal, the Caretaker Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, giving a statement that the caretaker government had the capacity to hold free, fair, and transparent elections in Gilgit-Baltistan.[14][15]

Opinion polling taken before the election had shown the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the ruling party prior to the 2020 election, being the third-most-popular political party in Gilgit-Baltistan, falling from its earlier position of making the province's government and having the largest vote-bank. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which rules nationally, led in the polls and the Pakistan Peoples Party has been shown as the second-most-popular political party.

745,362 voters in Gilgit-Baltistan had the ability to exercise their right to vote in the elections and will be able to vote across nearly 1,234 polling places across the province. This showed an increase of 126,998 new voters since 2015, when only 618,364 people were registered to vote. 405,365 of the people registered to vote are male and 339,997 are female (which shows a gender gap of 9%).[2][16][17]

The elections were be postponed in the constituency GBA-3 (Gilgit-III), due to the PTI candidate in that constituency, who was the provincial party leader, dying of COVID-19 in early October. The election there were held on November 22, seven days after the election throughout the rest of Gilgit-Baltistan.[18][1]

Preliminary and unofficial results have shown the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf being all set to form the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan. They have won eleven general seats, Independent politicians have won seven seats, the Pakistan Peoples Party has won three seats, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has won two seats, and the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen has won one seat.

Background[edit]

2015 elections[edit]

Following the elections in 2015, Pakistan Muslim League (N), emerged as the largest party winning 15 of the 24 general seats in the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly, and securing a supermajority in the assembly after the three technocrat (two who went to PML(N)) and six women representatives (four who went to PML(N)) were added with a final total of 21 out of 33 seats. Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman was elected as the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan.[19][20]

Timeline[edit]

Woman cast her vote during the election.
  • April 30, 2020: The Supreme Court of Pakistan allows the federal government to form a caretaker government in late June 2020 and hold a general election in Gilgit-Baltistan less than sixty days after the formation of the caretaker government.[21][22]
  • June 24, 2020: The members of the second assembly of Gilgit-Baltistan complete their full five-year terms and the assembly is dissolved.[23] Mir Afzal is sworn in as the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, serving as a caretaker.[24][25]
  • June 27, 2020: The President of Pakistan, Dr. Arif Alvi releases a statement scheduling the date August 18, 2020 to be the date of polling in the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election.[10][11]
  • July 2, 2020: An election schedule is issued by the Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission confirming August 18, 2020 to be the date of polling.[13]
  • July 11, 2020: The Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission postpones the upcoming election and suspends the previously published schedule in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. New dates of polling in October 2020 are deliberated upon.[12][13]
  • September 23, 2020: The President of Pakistan, Dr. Arif Alvi gives approval to the proposed polling date of November 15, 2020 for the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election.[3][4]
  • September 24, 2020: A detailed election schedule is issued by the Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission confirming the new date of polling, November 15, 2020.[5][6]
  • October 3, 2020: The Caretaker Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan Mir Afzal states that the Pakistan military's help will not be required in holding free and fair elections throughout Gilgit-Baltistan.[14][15]
  • October 19, 2020: The final revised list of the candidates running in each constituency is published by the Election Commission of Gilgit-Baltistan.[6][9]
  • October 20, 2020: Election Symbols are allotted to political parties and candidates.[6][9]
  • November 13, 2020: Official electoral rolls[2] and lists of polling stations[26] are released.
  • November 15, 2020: Elections held in all general seats of Gilgit-Baltistan except GBA-3 (Gilgit-III).[3][4][5][6][18]
  • November 22, 2020: Election held in GBA-3 (Gilgit-III).

Parties[edit]

The table below lists the ten political parties that fielded at least three candidates (out of a possible 24 constituencies) or won at least one assembly seat in the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election,[9] and gives a detailed overview of their characteristics. Parties are initially ordered by their voteshare in the 2015 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election.

Name National
Leader
Claimed
Ideology(ies)
Voteshare
in 2015
General Assembly
Seats won in
the 2015 election[c]
Total seats in the 2nd
Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly
[c]
Total seats in the 3rd
Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly
[d]
Symbol
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)
Shehbaz Sharif Conservatism
Economic Liberalism
Federalism
34.17%
15 / 24
21 / 33
3 / 33
Tiger
PPP Pakistan Peoples Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی
Bilawal Bhutto
Zardari
Social Democracy
Secularism
Social Liberalism
18.26%
1 / 24
1 / 33
5 / 33
Arrow
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف
Imran Khan Populism
Islamic Democracy
Welfarism
11.11%
1 / 24
1 / 33
22 / 33
Bat
MWM Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen
مجلس وحدتِ مسلمین
Allama Raja
Nasir Abbas
Pan-Islamism
Welfarism
Populism
10.50%
2 / 24
3 / 33
1 / 33
Tent
ITP Islami Tehreek Pakistan
اسلامی تحریک پاکستان
Syed Sajid
Ali Naqvi
Pan-Islamism 4.88%
2 / 24
3 / 33
0 / 33
Two Swords
JUI(F) Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl)
جمیعت علمائے اسلام (فضل)
Fazl-ur-Rahman Islamism
Clericalism
Conservatism
2.94%
1 / 24
3 / 33
1 / 33
Book
BNF[e] Balawaristan National Front (Naji)
بلاورستان نيشنل فرنٹ (ناجی)
Nawaz Khan Naji Gilgit-Baltistan
Autonomy
1.39%
1 / 24
1 / 33
1 / 33
Revolver
APML All Pakistan Muslim League
آل پاکستان مسلم لیگ
Pervez Musharraf Pakistani Nationalism
Islamic Democracy
Atlanticism
1.18%
0 / 24
0 / 33
0 / 33
Eagle
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan)

(متحدہ قومی موومنٹ (پاکستان

Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui Liberalism
Muhajir Nationalism
Secularism
0.16%
0 / 24
0 / 33
0 / 33
Kite
PSP Pak Sarzameen Party
پاک سرزمین پارٹی
Syed Mustafa
Kamal
Pakistani Nationalism Did Not Contest 2015 Elections
0 / 33
Dolphin
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (قائد اعظم)
Shujaat Hussain Conservatism
Pakistani Nationalism
Did Not Contest 2015 Elections
0 / 33
Tractor

Opinion Polls[edit]

In the run up to the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan elections, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Gilgit-Baltistan. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 8 June 2015, to the present day.

Voting Intention[edit]

The table below shows the results of polls taken which asked the people of Gilgit-Baltistan which political party they would vote for in the 2020 election.

Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PML(N) PPP PTI JUI(F) Indep. Other Lead Margin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method
Pulse Consultant 8 November 2020 HTML 14% 26% 35% 4% 12% 9% +9% N/A 1,423 Field Interviews
Gallup Pakistan 6 November 2020 14% 24% 27% 4% 12% 19% +3% ±2-3% ~1,000 Unknown
2015 Election 8 June 2015 ECGB 34.17% 18.40% 11.11% 4.45% 31.87% +15.77% N/A 379,032 Final Election Results

Results[edit]

The two tables below show the results of the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election by Political Party. The first table shows the results for the elections provincewide, through all 24 constituencies, and shows each political party's standing. The second table shows more detailed results for each of the 24 general constituencies.

Currently, only unofficial provisional results that are being reported by various news sources are shown in the tables below, but in the future the final results will be uploaded onto the Gilgit-Baltistan Election Commission Official website.

PTI got 2/3rd majority in the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly after getting 4 out of 6 reserved seats for women and 2 out of 3 reserved seats for technocrats. PPP got one women seat and one technocrat seat whereas PMLN only got one reserved seat for women. PTI became the first party in Gilgit Baltistan History to get 2/3rd Majority.[27]

Provincewide[edit]

Gilgit Baltistan Assembly 2020.svg
PartyVotes%Seats
GeneralWomenTechnocratsTotal+/–
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf164222+21
Pakistan Peoples Party3115+4
Pakistan Muslim League (N)2103–18
Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen1001–2
All Pakistan Muslim League00000
Islami Tehreek Pakistan0000–4
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F)10010
Muttahida Qaumi Movement–Pakistan0000New
Pakistan Muslim League (Q)0000New
Pak Sarzameen Party0000New
Balawaristan National Front (Naji)10010
Independents00000
Total2463330
Registered voters/turnout745,362

By Constituency[edit]

Constituency[9] Winner[9] Runner-up[9] Margin Registered
Voters
Votes
Cast
Voter
Turnout
District Name Candidate Party Votes % Candidate Party Votes %
Gilgit GBA-1 Amjad Hussain Azar PPP 11,178 Sultan Rais IND 8,356 2,822 35,992
GBA-2 Fatehullah Khan PTI 6,698 27.16% Jamil Ahmed PPP 6,694 27.14% 4 41,108 24,661 60.00%
GBA-3 Syed Sohail Abbas Shah PTI 6,873 Muhammad Iqbal IND 4,678 2,195 41,360
Nagar GBA-4 Amjad Hussain Azar PPP 4,716 Muhammad Ayub ITP 4,291 425 23,171
GBA-5 Javed Ali Manwa IND 2,570 Rizwan Ali MWM 1,850 720 14,001
Hunza GBA-6 Abaid Ullah Baig PTI 5,710 Noor Muhammad IND 4,683 2,014 43,603
Skardu GBA-7 Raja Muhammad Zakaria Khan Maqpoon PTI 5,565 Syed Mehdi Shah PPP 4,113 1,452 17,127
GBA-8 Muhammad Kazim Maisam MWM 7,842 35.35% Syed M. Ali Shah PPP 6,904 31.12% 938 39,567 22,182 56.06%
GBA-9 Wazir Muhammad Saleem IND 6,286 Fida M. Nashad PTI 5,187 1,099 25,562
GBA-10 Raja Nasir Ali Khan Maqpoon IND 4,811 27.18% Wazir Hassan PTI 3,439 19.43% 1,372 26,839 17,702 65.96%
Kharmang GBA-11 Syed Amjad Ali Zaidi PTI 5,733 Syed Muhsin Rizvi IND 2,016 3,717 26,869
Shigar GBA-12 Raja Azam Khan Amacha PTI 10,674 Imran Nadeem PPP 8,886 1,788 36,183
Astore GBA-13 Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan PTI 4,836 Abdul Hamid Khan PPP 3,117 1,719 33,378
GBA-14 Shamsul Haq PTI 5,354 Muzaffar Ali PPP 3,473 1,881 29,023
Diamer GBA-15 Shah Baig IND 2,713 Muhammad Dilpazir IND 2,309 404 35,185
GBA-16 Muhammad Anwar PML(N) 4,813 Attaullah IND 2,576 2,237 35,405
Tangir GBA-17 Rehmat Khaliq JUI(F) 5,389 Haider Khan PTI 5,126 263 29,955
Darel GBA-18 Gulbar Khan PTI 6,793 Malik Kifayat Ur Rehman IND 5,986 807 18,907
Ghizer GBA-19 Nawaz Khan Naji BNF

[e]

6,208 Pir Jalal Ali Shah PPP 4,967 1,241 37,808
GBA-21 Ghulam Muhammad PML(N) 4,334 M. Ayub Shah PPP 3,430 904 34,973
Gupis-Yasin GBA-20 Nazir Ahmed PTI 5,592 Khan Akbar Khan PML(Q) 3,815 1,777 42,533
Ghanche GBA-22 Mushtaq Hussain IND 6,051 M. Ibrahim Sanai PTI 4,945 1,106 29,104
GBA-23 Abdul Hameed IND 3,666 Amina Ansari PTI 3,296 370 27,522
GBA-24 Engr Mohammad Ismail PPP 6,239 Syed Shamsuddin PTI 5,361 845 20,187

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Except the election in the General Constituency of GBA-3 (Gilgit-III), where the election was postponed due to the death of a major candidate and was held on November 22.[1]
  2. ^ Six seats are reserved for women, three seats are reserved for technocrats.
  3. ^ a b One member was an Independent politician
  4. ^ One member was an Independent politician
  5. ^ a b Represented by Nawaz Khan Naji. Although Naji is the leader of Balawaristan National Front, he ran as an independent in the elections.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Mir, Shabbir (15 November 2020). "PTI stakes claim on G-B govt". The Express Tribune. Archived from the original on 18 November 2020. Retrieved 19 November 2020. Election in GBA-3 has been postponed till November 22, following the death of contesting candidate.
  2. ^ a b c "Summary Male, Female voters of Electoral Rolls 2020" (PDF). Summary Male, Female voters of Electoral Rolls 2020.pdf. Election Commission Gilgit-Baltistan. 12 November 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2020. Retrieved 18 November 2020.
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  11. ^ a b Sajjad Ahmad (8 July 2020). "Polls in GB". Polls in GB - Newspaper - DAWN.COM. DAWN News. Archived from the original on 23 September 2020. Retrieved 23 September 2020.
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  14. ^ a b "Army's help 'not required' for G-B polls". Army’s help ‘not required’ for G-B polls | The Express Tribune. The Express Tribune. 3 October 2020. Archived from the original on 27 October 2020. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  15. ^ a b "Army troops not to be deployed at polling stations: CM". Army troops not to be deployed at polling stations: CM. The Nation (Newspaper). 3 October 2020. Archived from the original on 27 October 2020. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
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  22. ^ Sohail Khan (1 May 2020). "Supreme Court allows govt to hold elections in Gilgit-Baltistan". Supreme Court allows govt to hold elections in Gilgit-Baltistan. The News International. Archived from the original on 27 October 2020. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
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